Steel Strategy Framework & Pricing Outlook

Our domestic steel producers have been highly active today across TV interviews, press statements, and LinkedIn, promoting the merits of the new Steel Strategy Framework. This is encouraging news for UK steel production, in which our group actively participates. However, while these communications reference newly introduced trade measures, there has been no formal publication providing full clarity on the details.

Several UK producers are referring to an overall 60% reduction in quotas. This implies more severe cuts on certain products, alongside rumours of significant pressure on key general steel categories. There is also confirmation that duty tariffs on oversupplied volumes will be at 50% from 1 July 2026.

In principle, such protectionist measures could allow domestic producers to increase prices to sustainable levels while remaining competitive. Some producers are suggesting this environment could enable them to grow domestic market share from approximately 30% to 50%, an increase in domestic sales of around 66%.

As UK stakeholders, we all want to see our steel industry thrive, particularly where state participation is involved. However, a key question remains: will end-users be able to absorb significantly higher steel prices while still competing against imported finished goods that are not subject to equivalent duties? Without addressing this imbalance, there is a risk that domestic steel consumption could fade away unless the government closes such a loophole.

From an All Steels Trading perspective, it is becoming increasingly clear that a substantial proportion of imports, including EU-origin material, will be subject to 50% duties. For the general products we trade, this could equate to additional costs in the region of £300–£400 per tonne on significant volumes.

Since our UK Steel Market Evaluation letter dated 22 February 2026, the situation has been further compounded by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, driving sharp increases in oil prices and, consequently, elevated gas and electricity costs for steel producers. In parallel, shipping costs from Turkey have risen by up to $50 per tonne due to increased risk and higher marine diesel prices. Shipping from Asia and the Middle East will be even more problematic.

As a core principle, we avoid selling below replacement cost. However, the scale of these increases makes immediate market adjustment unrealistic. That said, we must respond to the changing landscape. Hence, from tomorrow, we will re-enter the market with a series of staged price increases over the coming weeks. These adjustments are expected to be significant across all product categories, particularly where domestic supply options don’t exist.

During this interim period, sales will be restricted to stock available for immediate delivery only. Our sales team and I will be available tomorrow if you wish to discuss the situation in more detail.