The impact of globalisation and geopolitical tensions on the steel industry are set to be more pronounced than ever in the year ahead. President Trump’s decision to impose substantial steel tariffs on nearly all nations has far-reaching consequences, which will only intensify as other countries introduce similar retaliatory measures. The inevitable outcome of this scenario is a resurgence of inflation and rising steel prices.

Here in the UK, liquid steel output has currently reduced to circa 3 million tonnes per annum, while consumption stands at approximately 12 million tonnes—highlighting the country’s heavy reliance on imports.

At All Steels, our primary focus is on long products, and so the main focus of this note aims to provide our customers with an insight into expected price developments for structural sections, merchant bars, and hollow sections. Notably, 86.16% of UK imports for these products come from the EU and Turkey. The anticipated market shifts are already taking shape and could escalate rapidly.

Already in the UK we have recently seen £20-30 per tonne of price increases applied by most European producers of long products but it is All Steels’ view that this is only the first wave of such hikes. Our concerns and observations are initially focused on ferrous scrap as this is where the impact of Trump’s tariffs are most noticeable.

In the US, protectionist measures have already enabled domestic producers to raise steel prices on certain products by $165 per tonne during February 25 and the US scrap producers are wasting no time in taking a slice of this increase as well as enjoying the uptick in local demand. The graph below, featuring Kallanish published data on North American Hot Rolled Coil Mill Ex-Works Prices in US dollars, serves as a strong indicator of price trends.
Trade flows are already shifting in response to this situation, with Turkey being the hardest-hit country due to its status as the world's largest buyer of American scrap. In 2024, the US exported 13.38 million metric tonnes of scrap, with Turkey accounting for a significant 4.41 million metric tonnes.

As a result, Turkish steel producers are left with two main options:

1: Pay a premium for US scrap, which is expected to rise in line with increasing US domestic prices—a trend that is already evident.

2: Source raw materials from alternative markets, and increased buying activity from Europe is already evident.

The latter scenario is already tightening scrap availability in Europe and as this supply and demand balance switches prices are naturally increasing.

Over the coming months it is also likely that we will witness cuts in both UK and EU Safeguard quotas, dramatically heightening the risk of 25% import duties, especially on merchant bars (including angles) and structural sections. We also have the introduction of CBAM (Carbon Boarder Adjustment Measure) on the tailwinds, which as a standalone event will create one of the biggest upshifts in UK steel prices.

The All Steels strong message to all our customers is therefore to increase awareness of rising prices over the months ahead and as of this morning we will be applying a £20-30p/t price increase across most of our stock items. What is also important to note is that we are starting this journey from a very low stock base throughout the supply chain so demand is likely to jump quite quickly as buyers make their moves to beat price increases. Here in the UK, we are also of the belief that government infrastructure spending is truly ready to begin so this will also fuel much needed improvements in demand.

It has been a long-drawn-out trough of weak steel demand and prices but All Steels firmly believes that we are at that turning point where we all need to be prepared for price escalation that now looks unavoidable.